About the EICIE
The Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy (EICIE) is an indicator for quarterly growth of the Dutch real Gross Domestic Product. Official, and preliminary, data on real GDP are released by Statistics Netherlands with a time lag of at least 45 days.
We aim to publish the EICIE indicator with a time lag of less than two weeks. This short time lag is caused by our belief that we have an explanatory variable for real GDP with strong explanatory power, with the additional feature that this variable can be observed weekly, with a delay of just a few days. Hence, once a quarter is over, it takes just a week or two to obtain the relevant data on this explanatory variable. Moreover, the data on this variable are adequately measured, that is, measurement errors are not to be expected. Finally, in contrast to other predictive variables like stock market prices and interest rates, which are sometimes found to be relevant to forecast real GDP, values of our variable can partly be set by the company involved.
To forecast real GDP, we developed a real-time forecasting model. The key component of the model is an indicator for weekly staffing obtained from Randstad Staffing Services. We showed that our staffing indicator and real GDP are cointegrated, and that the indicator helps to give quarterly GDP figures with just a two-week delay.
The quotes of EICIE are published in the Dutch two-weekly journal Economisch Statistische Berichten (ESB). Shortly after publication in ESB, the quotes appear on this website.
