First estimate for the third quarter of 2016
September 30th, 2016
The Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy (EICIE) is a real-time indicator for quarterly growth of the Dutch real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The most recent values of the EICIE are published in the Dutch two-weekly journal Economisch Statistische Berichten (ESB). Shortly after publication, the quotes appear on this website.
This report concerns a first estimate for the third quarter of 2016. The first estimate of the percentage growth rate of real GDP in the third quarter of 2016, compared to the third quarter of 2015, is 2.3:
| Publication Date EICIE | Release EICIE¹ | Quote EICIE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016Q3 | 2016-09-30 | A | 2.3 |
Table 1. Most recent quote of the EICIE
¹ Update sequence - EICIE
A: First estimate, published during the relevant quarter
B: First updated estimate
C: Second updated estimate
Comparison of the EICIE to the official real GDP as measured by Statistics Netherlands
In Table 2 we compare the official real GDP growth rates as published by Statistics Netherlands (SN) to the EICIE. The first three columns in the table present the quotes of SN that are published during the past 90 days. In the second three columns we compare these to the most recent quotes of EICIE. In the final column we then compute the error of the EICIE compared to the quote of SN.
SN revises its estimates up to seven times. About one-and-a-half month after the end of a quarter, the institute releases a so-called flash value of real GDP. Again, one-and-a-half month later, the Regular Quarterly Forecast (RQF) is published. During the twelve months after its release, the RQF is then revised up to three times. One and a half year after the end of a quarter, the preliminary definitive value is published and yet again one year later, the final definitive value is published. The EICIE is updated up to two times, at maximum (depending on available changes in the input variables).
| Publication Date SN | Release SN² | Quote SN | Publication Date EICIE | Release EICIE¹ | Quote EICIE | Error | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013Q1 | 2016-09-30 | 5 | -1.4 | 2013-04-15 | A | -0.5 | 0.9 |
| 2013Q2 | 2016-09-30 | 5 | -1 | 2013-04-16 | A | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| 2013Q3 | 2016-09-30 | 5 | 0 | 2013-09-20 | B | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 2013Q4 | 2016-09-30 | 5 | 1.6 | 2013-09-21 | B | 1.1 | -0.5 |
| 2014Q1 | 2016-09-30 | 4 | 0.6 | 2014-05-07 | A | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2014Q2 | 2016-09-30 | 4 | 1.6 | 2014-05-08 | A | 0.6 | -1.0 |
| 2014Q3 | 2016-09-30 | 4 | 1.6 | 2014-05-09 | A | 1.7 | 0.1 |
| 2014Q4 | 2016-09-30 | 4 | 1.9 | 2014-05-10 | A | 0.8 | -1.1 |
| 2015Q1 | 2016-09-30 | 3 | 2.6 | 2015-03-13 | A | 1.2 | -1.4 |
| 2015Q2 | 2016-09-30 | 3 | 1.9 | 2015-05-20 | B | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| 2015Q3 | 2016-09-30 | 3 | 2 | 2015-11-13 | D | 1.4 | -0.6 |
| 2015Q4 | 2016-09-30 | 3 | 1.4 | 2015-11-14 | C | 0.6 | -0.8 |
| 2016Q1 | 2016-09-30 | 2 | 1.5 | 2016-03-22 | B | 1.1 | -0.4 |
| 2016Q2 | 2016-09-30 | 2 | 2.3 | 2016-05-25 | B | 0.7 | -1.6 |
| 2016Q2 | 2016-09-30 | 1 | 2.3 | 2016-05-25 | B | 0.7 | -1.6 |
Table 2. A comparison of real GDP measured by Statistics Netherlands to the EICIE
² Update sequence - Statistics Netherlands
1: Flash estimate, published 45 days after the end of the quarter
2: Regular Quarterly Forecast, published 90 days after the end of the quarter
2.1: First update of the Regular Quarterly Forecast
2.2: Second update of the Regular Quarterly Forecast
2.3: Third update of the Regular Quarterly Forecast
3: Adjusted Regular Quarterly Forecast, published 6 months after the end of the quarter
4: Preliminary definitive, published 1,5 years after the end of the quarter
5: Definitive, published 2,5 years after the end of the quarter
